Trade goods: rising gold and copper contracts amid undermine Bernanke reduce quantitative easing

Witness gold and copper prices rose after Ben Bernanke undermined reduce bets quantitative easing, boosting risk appetite and demands on non-paper assets.
Highlighted key points:
Usher gold and silver contracts its central undermine Berninkirhanat of recovery reduce quantitative easing
Copper contracts follow the lead of the stock to rise
Metals traded on the rise following the response of financial markets to the minutes of the FOMC meeting for the month of June and therefore the comments were on the lips of President Ben Bernanke. The record showed that some members of the Fed feared that "the expression of a desire to slow down the asset purchases ... might be misinterpreted as ... the first step towards a move away from the politics is very appropriate."
Reflect the price movements since the June meeting of the health concerns are similar, Bernanke struggled to clarify the idea that offended markets to understand. Central bank governor said that monetary policy is still very appropriate,  that inflation and growth trends, jobs point to the need for the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus, which undermines the reduction of quantitative easing bets.
Show markets feedback Mtoukaah. Prices are Asian and European stocks higher and copper contracts follow suit. Also check out gold and silver gains, as it allows low guesses reduce the quantitative easing the way for the recovery of precious metals. As futures trading S & P 500 index on the rise and the upcoming economic calendar is devoid of events that would hinder the momentum, referring to repeat the same scenario with the opening of the markets on Wall Street.
Technical analysis for crude oil - made prices just as had been expected after the test form holes in the font style candlestick above the trend line support. Bulls target currently stationed resistance at 106.26, which is 100% Fibonacci correction, which is designed to penetrate up 123.6% level object at 109.46. We have near-term support at 103.35, the 78.6% Fib.

Technical Analysis for gold (spot price) - Prices are following the progress tested form pattern of gulping SPV in making candles and impenetrable resistance located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1252.80) to target the existing level of 38.2% at 1297.75. Lets break above the door to reach the price 50% Fib at 1334.08. This plays a new level of 1252.80 recast as near-term support.

Technical Analysis for silver futures (spot price) - price is trading above the resistance located at 19.6, which is 23.6%, following tested a morning star pattern in the candlestick. Targeted daily closing above the resistance level of 38.2% at 20.73. As stationed near-term support at 18.19, which is the bottom of June 28.

Technical Analysis for decades copper (Mini Copper) - trading prices of the above resistance at 3.174, which is 23.6% Fibonacci extension, which aims to break up 38.2% of the object at 3.292. Main support lines up at 3.101, which is 14.6% Fib, followed by the 3,000 level

The critical situation of the U.S. dollar towards the end of the week, providing earnings reports that will be issued by leading American bankers and upcoming economic data on conflicting evidence about Fed policy.

Forefront of industrial production figures in the euro zone economic calendar is lacking to the data during European hours. Expectations production fell by 0.3% in May, the worst reading in four months. In this regard, the estimates are still the main driver of monetary policy to price movements of the euro, so it will shed any poor results weighed on the single currency through consolidation cautious attitude of the European Central Bank.
However, it is unlikely to be of great importance is given to those numbers as the attention the ever authority over the debate surrounding the monetary policy for the Fed. Accordingly, it is likely to lead data PPI Alomirkyinothagh the consumer from the University of Michigan to lead price movements significantly.
Is likely to accelerate wholesale inflation, the average annual eight-month high at 2.1%. In the meantime, it is likely that up confidence index from the University of Michigan to its highest level in six years. Strong reading would fueling bets on the Federal Reserve to reduce asset purchases. Will provide a similar scenario lifeline to the U.S. dollar after two days of heavy selling.
On the other hand, a table revenue, is expected to be published both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo revenue results for the second semester. Traders will monitor closely this event in order to get details about the recent rise witnessed in bond yields in light of speculation surrounding the Fed's recourse to the reduction of quantitative easing.
Major currencies followed a sideways trend during the overnight session, as the lack of events allowed risky markets absorb oscillations recorded in the previous day. The New Zealand dollar, it has superiority in performance and has gained about 0.4% against its major counterparts.

Highlighted the main points of the Asian session
Greenwich Mean Time
Currency
Index
The actual reading
Expected
Previous reading
1:30
AUD
Home loans - Month (May)
1.8%
2.2%
1.2%
1:30
AUD
Investment loans - May
1.5%
-
0.9%
1:30
AUD
The value of loans - Month (May)
2.3%
-
-0.6%
3:00
NZD
Non-resident bondholders - June
68.2%
-
69.1%
4:30
JPY
Industrial production - Month (May)
1.9%
-
2.0%
4:30
JPY
Industrial Production - YoY (May)
-1.1%
-
-1.0%
4:30
JPY
Capacity utilization - Month (May)
2.3%
-
1.6%
Euro Session: What to Expect?
Greenwich Mean Time
Currency
Index
Expected / current
Previous reading
IMPACT
8:30
GBP
Construction Output - YoY (May)
-2.8%
-1.1%
Low
9:00
EUR
Industrial production in the euro zone - Month (May)
-0.3%
0.4%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Industrial production in the euro zone - YoY (May)
-1.3%
-0.6%
Medium
Major turning points
The pair
Support levels
Resistance levels
EURUSD
1.2971
1.3215
GBPUSD
1.5048
1.5271

Very likely provide the euro in the absence of any surprises Greek or enlargement of the European Central Bank to circle redirected

The lights have authority over all of Brussels with the beginning of the week, as it meets euro-zone finance ministers to agree on a slide following after the Greek finance the same goal investigative visit by the Troika (EU / ECB / IMF) over the weekend. Some reports suggest that investigators were not satisfied with the progress that has been made in terms of reforms, but the Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stornaras reported that he will be likely to reach an agreement on the liberalization of 240 billion euros of loans before the start of the meeting. However, investors are aware of the size of the gap between the facts and the comments of politicians so closely the results, which would run from the summit.
Likely to include discussions also witnessed by the recent appreciation Portuguese borrowing costs - where revenue exceeded bonds due in ten years the level of 7% in the past week - along with efforts to help Cyprus. In a different framework, due to be published the International Monetary Fund annual report Ocean develop the economy in the euro zone, while will be made by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi testified before the quarterly Economic and Monetary Committee of the European Parliament.
Due to the progress in containing the debt crisis since last year's report, it is likely to stress the International Monetary Fund on the sustainability of the recession in the currency bloc. He called on the international lender the European Central Bank to cut interest rates and the adoption of measures to facilitate unusual in the year 2012. It is possible to re-repeat it again, but that similar comments would be more neutral following the cautious stance taken by the central bank in the previous week. The same applies to the governor Draghi certificate. In general, it indicates the possibility of testing the euro upward correction in the absence of any surprises from the Brussels meeting.

Highlighted the main points of the Asian session
Greenwich Mean Time
Currency
Index
The actual reading
Expected
Previous reading
23:50
JPY
Bank lending banks, with the exception of deposits - June
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
23:50
JPY
Bank lending banks, including deposits - June
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
23:50
JPY
Total average current account - Palin - May
623.3B
600.0B
852.7B
23:50
JPY
The balance of trade on the basis of the balance of payments - Palin - May
-906.7B
-902.1B
-818.8B
23:50
JPY
The current account - YoY (May)
58.1%
91.6%
100.8%
23:50
JPY
Total current account - Palin - May
540.7B
600.0B
750.0B
1:30
AUD
Index ANZ Job Advertisements - Month (June)
-1.8%
-
-2.5%
2:35
NZD
REINZ index of house prices - June
3685.8
-
3686.9
2:35
NZD
REINZ index of house prices - Month (June)
0.0%
-
0.7%
2:35
NZD
REINZ index for home sales - year (June)
0.0%
-
7.5%
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies - year (June)
-8.0%
-
-9.0%
5:00
JPY
Economy Watchers Survey: status quo - June
53.0
55.5
55.7
5:00
JPY
Economy Watchers Survey: Outlook - June
53.6
55.7
56.2
Euro Session: What to Expect?
Greenwich Mean Time
Currency
Index
Expected / current
Previous reading
IMPACT
5:45
CHF
Unemployment rate - June
2.9% (A)
3.0%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German trade balance - euro - June
13.1B (A)
18.0B
Medium
6:00
EUR
German current account - in euros - June
11.2B (A)
16.7B
Medium
6:00
EUR
German imports - Month (June)
1.7% (A)
1.2%
Low
6:00
EUR
German exports - Month (June)
-2.4% (A)
1.4%
Low
7:15
CHF
Industrial production - annual (Chapter I)
3.0% (A)
1.7%
Low
8:30
EUR
A Santeks survey of investor confidence in the euro zone - July
-11.4
-11.6
Low
10:00
EUR
German industrial production - YoY (May)
-0.5%
1.0%
Medium
10:00
EUR
German industrial production - Month (May)
-0.5%
1.8%
Medium
13:00
EUR
Meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels
-
-
High
13:00
EUR
Draghi speech before the European Parliament
-
-
Medium
13:00
EUR
Statement of the International Monetary Fund on the European situation
-
-
Medium
Major turning points
The pair
Support levels
Resistance levels
EURUSD
1.2784
1.2895
GBPUSD
1.4806
1.5027 x

Acceleration Atarsauda and down to a three-year peak amid growing concerns surrounding

The U.S. dollar was the biggest gainer in the past week. Standard currency advanced against all its major counterparts during that period, while the expanded Dollar Index Dow Jones - Ave. XML. CNN. Or circle upward acceleration for the third week in a row.
USD_weekly_July_08_body_Pictur.png, the dollar is accelerating up and down to a three-year peak amid growing concerns surrounding
The fundamental outlook for the U.S. dollar: POSITIVE
U.S. jobs report available outside the agricultural sector exceeding expectations and fears surrounding still exist
Manufacturing and service sector were taking divergent paths
U.S. dollar than new resistance levels to trade at a three-year peaks
The U.S. dollar was the biggest gainer in the past week. Standard currency advanced against all its major counterparts during that period, while the expanded Dollar Index Dow Jones - Ave. XML. CNN. Or circle upward acceleration for the third week in a row and reached a three-year peaks. In the meantime, the greatest danger that threatens to become hurt markets for the benefit of green which is considered a safe haven. It does not indicate that the corrective moves opposite direction are excluded.
First and most importantly, what enhances the upward acceleration of the dollar is largely the growing acceptance of the idea of ??the direction of the Fed towards a reduction in the monthly volume purchases of assets ($ 85 billion) by September. Enjoy the possibility of crystallization of a similar scenario effects on markets with large proceed. During the past four years, advanced on the capital markets despite the disparity of growth and historically low rates of return. While the move was caused directly by re-investments after the Great Depression and the financial crisis that hit the year in 2007-2008, turned into a fueled an essential step in investing: greed.
When he referred Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the press conference held in the wake of the June interest rate decision that the reduction may begin later this year and by mid-year 2014, it was a clear shift in the position of the bank in the future. Since then, have not noticed anything that would impede the time frame for the reduction process. Sought speeches delivered by Federal Reserve officials to alleviate reactions to the expected results, but it did not oppose the estimates. In the previous week, led statements of work for the month of June to the same result. More importantly, change jobs, the Fed made the unemployment rate. Not decreased rate of 7.6% as was likely, but still slightly higher than the bottom of the four years.
Perhaps the jobs report provides the perfect embodiment of the situation in which we are. Are the expectations of the start of the Fed cut the Department of quantitative easing within three months is prevailing in the market, and the effects of that reflected in the Forex and Treasury bonds and higher-yielding assets and stock up. However, it is extremely difficult to break dependence.
In descending order of impact, faced Treasury bonds and bonds backed by mortgages strike first and strongest. Then come U.S. Treasury bonds (government bonds). U.S. bond yields gained due in ten years about 70% (1.12 percentage points) in less than two months, it looks the biggest buyer in the market to reduce the frequency of purchase. Then comes the dollar, which reached the peak of three years following the acceleration up by nearly 5%.
Equity is the only stainless - prefer to use index S & P500. Central presence close to historical peaks and reached record levels in the presence of participating at their lowest levels in decades; There is a clear risk out of locations in if stumbled confidence. When this domino falls? Hard to see it; but whenever risk aversion, the more wick flared.
As usual, at the level of search for Majajat of fears, carries with it the next week a lot of risky events that should be taken into consideration. On the American scene, will deliver Bernanke and a number of other politicians letters to them; season will start the second quarter earnings reports; Auction of Treasury bonds to maturity term; and the number of data. However, you will enjoy the euro zone crisis and the crisis of Chinese growth or other effects of the largest developments.

U.S. dollar supports safe condition currency

Stop the U.S. dollar bearish pattern that began during Thursday's trading, as investors' fears of a slowdown in global growth hampered by considerations for a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar.

Surprise Ben Bernanke and the Fed upward movement on the U.S. dollar through the permissive statement which indicated that the Fed is ready to reduce the fiscal stimulus and that he would prefer to wait until you are more confirmation signals are more available. Mystery growing on trend short-term U.S. dollar against expectations that refer to yen weak increasingly, the U.S. dollar some support, as investors sought to get a safe-haven currency before readings on Monday on China's economic growth, and analysts expect that GDP for the second quarter will have declined by 7.5%, but can not be ruled otherwise.

As reported from Tokyo at 12:10 Japan time, the U.S. dollar index was flat on Friday, as trading at 82.762DXY, after falling to its lowest level in 3 weeks when 82.418DXY during the previous parliamentary session, but it remains far away from the summit on Tuesday, which is the highest level in 3 years when 84.753DXY. The U.S. Dollar Index is used by investors to gauge the relative strength of the U.S. dollar against a number of his main rivals. And trading pair dollar / Japanese yen at 99.02 yen, more than 200 points from the summit on Wednesday at 101.21 yen. And proven pair euro / dollar at $ 1.3092, close to the summit on Thursday at $ 1.3201

The indicators moved in Forex

Indicators are the most effective tools in the visible part of technical analysis. As it defines the exact moments for sale and purchase. In technical analysis of financial, there are a lot of different indicators that are used, and Cullen the majority of them repeat each other, since they refer to the same upcoming events.

Can be divided selection of financial indicators into 3 categories: rebounds style, oscillators, and other Mharat. Follow-up indicators for the pattern to be effective when the market moves in a particular style, but they become dangerous in the fixed markets. Oscillators in the Forex show turning points in the market hard, and can send signals inappropriate or wrong on the mobile market. Other indicators monitoring the mental state of the investors.

Since the oscillators are synchronized or proactive, they usually change before the actual change in price, and thus could help in identifying turning points. The most common indicators and of the fluctuations are indicators "Stushastic" and "rate of change" and "the rate of change polished" and "momentum" and "Relative Strength Index (RSI)", and "Index father - Ray" and "Strength Index" and "Index Commodity Channel (CCI) "and others.

What indicators shown by the fluctuation of Forex?
Show us oscillators in Forks when the forex market reaches its limits in any direction, and the patch opposite pattern becomes very possible. When the price moves higher, analysts say that the market buy overtraining. This simply means that the price will remain stable or even that it will decline for some time, because traders are on hand to collect their profits. During the negative patch, traders will enter the new market, and raise the price.

Sold overload markets respectively mean the reverse situation, when the price drops significantly and becomes more positive correction probability. Since the value oscillators Tqnbar of the upper limit, it is imperative that the parent becomes excessively buy, and when it starts approaching the lower limit, it is imperative that become sold overload.

Another important element in the analysis of very oscillators. Do not use the index to find out the situation excessively purchased or sold overload only, but to predict the breaking points in the price movement. Some of these points are a mathematical transformations in points (a derivative of the first and second respectively) and on the charts, lines usually move in the same direction with the price. When the prices start to move away from each other, is that the pattern analyst lose momentum. Oscillators are considered particularly useful in these circumstances.

Analysis of oscillators in Forex
If consists analyze Forex Mtzbzbat of two main components: first, whether the discovery Forex market passes in Sold overload conditions or purchased short-term overload, and second, determine the dispersion with the price oscillating with the approach of the value of the maximum limits. Each of the momentum and the rate of change of the basic oscillators. Tells us the price chart if the price moves up or down. And then the graph tells us volatility index on the speed of the movement. This kind of as help us in the indicators to assess whether the current style is gaining strength (momentum) or lose. In the late stages of the bullish pattern, the rate of price increase starts to slow down.

This loss of momentum may not testify to chart the price, but it clearly well on your chart indicators oscillators supporting. Indicators that measure the momentum and the rate of change, is fundamentally important. The oscillators are very useful when you do not show graphs own style forex pattern is evident in any direction. In the markets that style Tpta, must be handled with extreme caution, as the wrong signals generally refers to increase the strength of the pattern. If you have the following rule for the analysis of oscillators is that the pattern of indicators show

Upward bought overload conditions, and vice versa, downward pattern sold overload conditions. Progress of major graphics programs a large variety of oscillators in order to assist traders in determining the maximum market conditions and potential turning points Price. The most valuable indicators are "momentum" and "rate of change", and then comes the "RSI" and "Stushastic". This type of indicators is useful largely through partial market moves or when it reaches the style assigned to the final stages. Lose all oscillators expired amid strong style.

Better to use other indicators such as "moving average" on the markets that follow a certain pattern. There are also some indications that combine the advantages of Moving Averages followed by indicators that define the situation sold or purchased overtraining.

Where the Japanese yen

The Japanese yen fell during the past two weeks, more than about 5%, and so on after the dissolution of parliament Japanese and the need for new elections for prime minister, where most opinion polls indicate a possible success of the opposition led by the Democratic Party liberal, a party that in what if came to power change of the Japanese central bank's policy on quantitative easing programs in the country.

That's where everyone knows that the Japanese central bank is based procedures motivational simple by 10 trillion yen in every two to three months ago, but this thing is no wonder the opposition and the party, where he calls for the Japanese central bank more quantitative easing and Pmalg a bigger impact on the Japanese yen and weakening to positively affect Japanese exports, which is now rejected by the Japanese central.

But in the case of the arrival of the opposition to the government now, it is possible that there will be great pressure on the bank to doing what asked of the government, which is priced in now, where that opinion polls indicate progress opposition largely on pro-government forces now, and it witnessing large turnout of traders and investors to sell the yen against most world currencies, and also showed the report of the Commission Futures U.S. high rates of sales contracts for the Japanese to their highest levels since the time as shown in the graphic below, which also led to a decline difference again between procurement contracts to contracts sales to their lowest levels as well.

The first scenario, which is expected to happen is to win the opposition and the continuation of quantitative easing from the BOJ either scenario, the other is unlikely somewhat far, to continue the loyalists in power and continue quantitative easing as much current, which will lead to the decline of the dollar against the yen to above New levels of 80.00 to 77.00 levels at least.